Thursday, 10 February 2022

From Friends of Ukraine Network

 

February 10, 2022
We are all able to read multiple articles every day regarding the Russian war against Ukraine. (It is a war not a crisis.) In this Putin-created war little Vladimir Vladimirovich has a wide range of options before him as he focuses on his goal of breaking the treaties and alliances that have sustained an international security structure for decades. All that is really unknown is the timing and tactics he will employ in pursuing his malevolent objectives beginning with his desire to dominate Ukraine.
 
One thing that is different at the moment is that American and western reporters are reporting from Ukraine, not Moscow and Washington which has been the case for far too long.
 
Here you will find a just released Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on the Decision of the Russian Federation to Block Parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. 

The statement is followed by two reports, one from The Washington Post and one from The Philadelphia Inquirer. If you have not seen either of them, I recommend both. In the second Trudy Rubin, a columnist, for the Inquirer gives a first-hand report from time with the Ukrainian Coast Guard near the Sea of Azov.
 
Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on the Decision of the Russian Federation to Block Parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait
10 February 2022 12:00
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine strongly protests against the decision of the Russian Federation to block parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait under the pretext of holding regular naval exercises.

Unprecedented coverage of maneuvers makes navigation in both seas virtually impossible. In essence, this is a significant and unjustified complication of international shipping, especially trade, which can cause complex economic and social consequences, especially for the ports of Ukraine.

Such aggressive actions of the Russian Federation, which fit into the concept of its hybrid war against Ukraine, are unacceptable. This is a manifestation of open disregard for the norms and principles of international law, including the UN Charter, UN General Assembly resolutions and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Ukraine is closely working with the partners, primarily those of the Black Sea region, to ensure that such actions of the Russian side receive a proper assessment and response.
 
The Washington Post
 
Russia begins military exercises in Black Sea and Belarus, stoking fears of preparations for an attack on Ukraine
A Ukrainian soldier keeps watch in Pisky, Ukraine, on Feb. 9. (Gaelle Girbes/Getty Images)


 and 
 
KYIV, Ukraine — Russian forces on Thursday began 10 days of military exercises with Belarus, and warships arrived at a strategic port on the Black Sea, as Western diplomats seek to avert what they fear could be an invasion after preparations cloaked as training.

A detachment of six ships arrived at the Sevastopol port in Crimea, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement, capping a 7,000-nautical-mile journey to begin what officials describe as a naval exercise. The Russian landing ships typically are used for unloading troops, vehicles and materiel onto land. Some took part in Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008.
 
Ukrainian officials blasted the maneuvers, calling them an “unprecedented” action that makes navigation in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov virtually impossible. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry condemned what it described as Russia’s decision to “block” parts of those seas and the Kerch Strait “under the pretext of holding regular naval exercises.”
 
“In essence, this is a significant and unjustified complication of international shipping, especially trade, which can cause complex economic and social consequences, especially for the ports of Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said.
 
In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied in a call with reporters that the drills would affect commercial operations. [Kremlin spokesman – lips moving – lies being spoken. Give us a break Dmitry! Russia has been harassing and more commercial shipping in and out of Ukrainian ports for quite some time as part of the Kremlin’s ongoing war – this element of that war focused on Ukraine’s economy. Read more about this in the Philadelphia Inquirer article below. RAM]
 
Top Russian military commanders flew into Belarus on Wednesday for the maneuvers, which involve thousands of troops and sophisticated weapons systems including S-400 surface-to-air missiles, Pantsir air defense systems and Su-35 fighter jets.
 
Officials in Moscow and Minsk have said Russian troops will withdraw after the exercises. But U.S. and European security officials are not convinced, and with the arrival in Russian-annexed Crimea, the ships put Russian troops in striking distance along Ukraine’s southern coastline. [“Not convinced” – really. Why would anyone in their right mind accept anything Moscow officials say? One can only believe the troops will withdraw if they withdraw and only then. RAM]
 
Russian officials, who deny they have plans to attack Ukraine, continue to accuse the United States and NATO of driving up tensions. Peskov said Russia was staging the joint exercises with Belarus to combat “unprecedented security threats … the nature and, perhaps, concentration of which are, unfortunately, much larger and much more dangerous than before.” [Poor Russia – really? Putin invades and occupies Crimea, invades Eastern Ukraine and kills people there for going on eight years, wages a preposterous propaganda campaign against Ukraine, almost shuts down Ukrainian commerce in the Black Sea and the Sea of Arzov, conducts on-going cyber-attacks against Ukrainian institutions, starts on-going bomb threats at Ukrainian schools and other sensitive locations and accuses the United States and NATO of driving up tensions. How can such lunatic accusations be printed without automatic rebuttal and ridicule? RAM]
 
This cartoon was not in The Washington Post - I added the Kevin Siers cartoon from The Charolette Observer. It is one of so many political cartoons appearing recently that have captured the reality of this Putin -created war.


The training exercises are the largest Russia has ever conducted in Belarus. They included operations to detect ambush sites for improvised explosive devices and small group tactics, according to Russia’s Tass news agency, in apparent preparation for urban battles and unconventional warfare against militias and volunteers.
 
Russia, which annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, has massed more than 100,000 troops — Kyiv has put the number as high as 140,000 — near the borders of its smaller neighbor.
 
Moscow’s recent military maneuverings are nudging some countries that Russian President Vladimir Putin considers part of Russia’s sphere of influence further toward the West. Lithuania’s president on Wednesday said Vilnius would request that Washington station troops in the Baltic country permanently to help boost security. [The fact is that little Vladimir’s tortured and misguided view of history and the people of Ukraine has left him totally incompetent to judge either the people of Ukraine or their reactions to his barbarity – the consequences of his actions. His behavior has done more than any Ukrainian President has been able to do in united the people of Ukraine – against Russian aggression. RAM]
 
U.S. and European officials are continuing to push for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, though efforts such as French President Emmanuel Macron’s trips to Moscow and Kyiv this week have produced no breakthrough.
 
Political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany will meet Thursday in Berlin for “Normandy format” talks that aim to implement the Minsk agreements, signed after Moscow seized Crimea. The talks have been pushed by Berlin as a way out of the current crisis.
 
But Moscow and Kyiv are deeply divided on how to proceed. “There are differences of opinion,” said German government spokesman Wolfgang Büchner. “In essence, it will be a question of further reducing them.”
 
Russia’s ambassador to Germany, Sergei Nechayev, reportedly told German media that Berlin and Paris should be “more assertive” in urging Kyiv to accept and implement the terms of the peace accords. [Russia’s ambassador, just like Putin and the Kremlin spin, spin, spin the Minsk “agreements” are terrible and Moscow’s reading thereof is self-serving and as inaccurate as Russia’s lack of compliance to what was agree is blatant. RAM]
 
Kyiv’s political leadership has argued that the deal, which is focused on the breakaway parts of eastern Ukraine, should be renegotiated. It is widely regarded by Ukrainians as favorable to Moscow-backed separatists, and Ukrainian officials have said it would trigger internal unrest if fully implemented. [It is a great step forward that reporters like these are no reporting from Ukraine and not only from Moscow and Washington about Ukraine but – good grief – still adhering to the Russian propaganda of “Moscow-backed separatists? Shameful. Will any mainstream media ever report facts like - - early on when two Russian – not Russian-backed separatists but Russian -- soldiers were captured in Donbas they admitted they were shocked they had been firing at Ukrainians saying that they were told they would be fighting Americans. Hello world. Ukraine is the current military battlefield but Putin’s war is against the United States, NATO, and the geopolitical structures that have been established for international stability. RAM.]
 
Putin said in a statement Thursday that the world is becoming “more and more turbulent and tense.” [And here it might have been noted that the little fellow happens to be responsible for the situation – and he is responsible for the lives that have been and may soon be lost due to his unilateral war. RAM]
 
The situation “requires additional persistent efforts to ensure strategic stability and counteract emerging threats and challenges, first of all, by seeking comprehensive, legally enforceable security guarantees for our country from the United States and its NATO allies,” he said. [What a fraud! RAM]
 
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, speaking at NATO headquarters in Brussels, said the next few days are “probably the most dangerous moment.”
 
He said that “the combination of sanctions and military resolve plus diplomacy is what is in order” in what he described as “the biggest security crisis Europe has faced for decades.”
 
Speaking alongside NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the British leader said he does not think Putin has decided whether to attack Ukraine but that an invasion is still possible in the near future.
 
“Our intelligence, I’m afraid to say, remains grim,” Johnson said. “We’re seeing the massing of huge numbers of tactical battalion groups on the borders of Ukraine, 70 or more.” Johnson is also scheduled to head to Warsaw on Thursday for meetings with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and President Andrzej Duda.
 
Stoltenberg agreed that Europe faces a “dangerous moment” for its security. “The number of Russian forces is going up,” he said. “The warning time for a possible attack is going down.” .
 
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss warned Russia on Thursday that invading the Ukraine would be “disastrous,” as she urged Russia to pursue a path of diplomacy. “Fundamentally, a war in Ukraine would be disastrous for the Russian and Ukrainian people, and for European security. And, together, NATO has made it clear that any incursion into Ukraine would have massive consequences and carry severe costs,” she said. [A critical problem here is the West’s perception of this war. There is little to no evidence the United States or Europe grasp the fact that this war is against them (us) – Ukraine is but the primary current target. Whether Russian tanks roll into Ukraine now or not, Putin’s ultimate objective doesn’t change, only tactics and timing. It is a mistake to talk in terms of Putin not havign made up his mind – hello! It is just a matter of tactics and timing, his mind is set. His focus and intention is not in doubt. If he does not increase his on-going war against Ukraine with further invasion, incursion or shellings at this moment it would be a catestophic mistake for Washington and the West to declares some sort of victory and relax. All of the deterrance must stay in place (and actually increase). Putin should be punished for what he has already done. Anything else would be a failure by Washignton and the West. RAM]
 
 
Truss was speaking from Moscow, where she was meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. She urged Russia to abandon “Cold War rhetoric” and said the West cannot “ignore the buildup of over 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and the attempts to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.” But, she said, “there is an alternative route, a diplomatic route that avoids conflict and bloodshed.”
Lavrov said he was “frankly disappointed” in his conversation with Truss, complaining that Britain failed to listen to Russia’s concerns. [Lavrov and Putin constantly complain that nobody listens to their concerns – wrong. Everyone has heard and reviewed their outrageous concerns and flat out rejected them. That posture must continue. They can wallow in their discontent but their tears are nothing more than propaganda. RAM]
 
 
Western nations are stepping up their military presence in the region even as they pursue a diplomatic solution. A grim U.S. military and intelligence assessment reported Saturday that a war could cause Ukraine’s government to collapse within days, kill or wound up to 50,000 civilians and displace up to 5 million people. [Again (a) let us not think Putin’s not rolling tanks into Ukraine now would solve anything in the long term. His only adjustment would have to do with timing and tactics unless the West shuts him down! (b) Stop and digest the paragraph above - - would “kill or wound up to 50,000 civilians” – what is the definition of a war crime? RAM]
 
London, which is playing an outsize role in trying to resolve the crisis, has placed 1,000 troops on standby in the event that a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine triggers a humanitarian and refugee crisis. [“in the event” – further invasion - equals lives lost, families destroyed and that is a humanitarian crisis. RAM]
 
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte said during a visit to Kyiv that Ukraine will receive some Stinger antiaircraft missile launchers “in the near future.” The man-portable launchers are intended to bolster Ukraine’s ability to shoot down helicopters and low-flying aircraft.

The Biden administration said Wednesday it is readying plans for U.S. military forces to help evacuate Americans once they cross into Poland in the event of a Russian attack. The last American service member to leave Afghanistan in August, Army Maj. Gen. Christopher T. Donahue of the 82nd Airborne Division, is the commander in Poland coordinating the efforts.
 
The United States is also moving some troops from Germany to Romania to support NATO’s eastern flank. A Stryker squadron departed Germany on Wednesday and will arrive in several days, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
The Biden administration is resisting comparisons to Afghanistan, where U.S. troops last year helped evacuate more than 100,000 people in the chaos after the fall of Kabul. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Wednesday that the United States, which is advising American citizens to leave Ukraine, “does not typically do mass evacuations.”
 
“The situation in Afghanistan was unique for many reasons, including that it was the end of a 20-year war. We were bringing a war to an end; we were not trying to prevent a war, as we are certainly in this case.”
 
The Kremlin is demanding a sweeping rewrite of the post-Cold War European security order, including a permanent ban on Ukraine joining NATO and the removal of the bloc’s forces from Eastern Europe. Washington and its allies have ruled out ending NATO’s “open door” policy, though they have offered to negotiate on issues Moscow deems of “secondary” importance.
“What we need to see is real diplomacy, not coercive diplomacy,” Britain’s Johnson said in a statement Thursday. “As an alliance we must draw lines in the snow and be clear there are principles upon which we will not compromise. That includes the security of every NATO ally and the right of every European democracy to aspire to NATO membership.” [Yes, yes, of course every NATO member gets protection and defense but are any of these spokespeople noticing how emphasis on defending NATO countries leaves obvious the fact that none are talking about the defense of Ukraine – Putin certainly notices. I am not talking defense in the sense of direct military involvement but despite significant support we – the United States and NATO members have yet come close to providing Ukraine the weapons and systems it needs to fight Russia for its own interests and ours. If Ukraine is invaded further and lost the blame will rest on what overall has been feckless Western support. RAM]
 
For Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the eight-year battle with Russian-backed separatists in the country’s east, war is not a looming geopolitical threat. [“Russian-backed separatists” – outrageous by-in to Russian propaganda. RAM] It’s a daily grind. “They try to hit us with grenade launchers, shelling, small-arms fire,” said Maxim, a 26-year-old soldier on the front lines in a former industrial zone in Avdiivka. “It isn’t easy conditions, but it’s what we signed up for,” he told The Washington Post, declining to give his last name to protect his family’s privacy.
 
Dixon reported from Moscow and Pannett from Sydney. Steve Hendrix in Avdiivka, Ukraine, Loveday Morris in Berlin, Karla Adam in London and David L. Stern in Kyiv contributed to this report.
 
The Philadelphia Inquirer
 
The view from a Ukrainian coast guard boat isn’t pretty | Trudy Rubin

As Russia conducts warship “exercises” in
the Black Sea and harasses Ukrainian shipping in the Sea of Azov, the world
wonders if this is a prelude to a naval attack.
Worldview columnist Trudy Rubin in front of Ukrainian Coast Guard patrol boat in port of Berdyansk.Courtesy of Alina Beskrovna


bTrudy Rubin | Columnist
Published 
Feb 9, 2022

BERDYANSK, Ukraine — Standing on the freezing deck of a Ukrainian coast guard patrol boat, looking out at the flat gray Sea of Azov, one can easily understand why Vladimir Putin believes he can bend Ukraine to his will.
While the world focuses on Putin’s massive military buildup
around Ukraine’s land borders, far less attention has been paid to the Russian threat from the sea.
 
Six Russian amphibious landing ships are moving from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea to join Russia’s Black Sea fleet for “exercises” opposite Ukraine’s main naval Port of Odessa. Meanwhile, Russian ships are monitoring Berdyansk and neighboring Mariupol, the two main Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov, a northern extension of the Black Sea.

Coast Guard Capt. Roman Varianitsyn, my host on the patrol boat, is painfully aware of Russia’s grim maritime challenge to his country, which he has been dealing with professionally and personally for the last eight years.

“Our responsibility is to patrol the borders of the Azov,” he tells me, standing tall despite the low roof of the control room, in a blue uniform, blue wool cap, and windbreaker. “But after Russia illegally invaded and annexed Crimea they got to decide who goes in and goes out of this Azov sea.”

His coast guard base is located in this seaside resort town of Berdyansk, whose harbor and beaches curve into the Azov. The town looks
peaceful on the surface. Its water park, gated summer camps, and small hotels
have shuttered for the chilly winter. But only an hour up the coast is the front linethe crossing between government-controlled territory and the chunk of the
Donbas region occupied by Russian proxies and Russian soldiers. [Trudy
Rubin got it right – hello the rest of American press! “Russian soldiers” RAM]

And off the coast of Berdyansk, the Russian navy has been harassing Ukrainian ships for nearly a decade.
Ukrainian Coast Guard Capt. Roman Varianitsyn on a patrol boat in Berdyansk port on the Sea of Azov.Read moreStaff/Trudy Rubin


Varianitsyn remembers well when the trouble started in 2014. That’s when Russian troops without insignia or uniforms suddenly invaded the Crimean peninsula, which straddles both the Black Sea and the Azov. Most of Ukraine’s navy was based on the peninsula, and he had to swiftly sail the navy ship he then commanded out to sea and away from the Russians, leaving his wife and 2-year-old daughter behind.

Only later could he return to evacuate his family in a civilian convoy.

The result of that invasion was a decimated Ukrainian navy that is only now rebuilding. [And navies are not rebuilt quickly – even with a few ships/patrol boats provided by the West. RAM]

Having switched to the coast guard, the captain had a close call in September 2014 when his patrol boat was hit by an antitank missile fired by pro-Russian forces on the mainland. The boat exploded and two of his colleagues died.

In the eight years since Russia annexed Crimea, the Russian navy has delighted in harassing and humiliating Ukrainian shipping, Varianitsyn tells me. Although both Russia and Ukraine have equal rights to use the Azov (as the only two nations that border the sea), the Russians have taken control of the Kerch Strait: the single narrow passage into the small sea.

“Russia completely overturned the rules and they get to decide who passes,” the captain relates bitterly.

In 2018, the Russian Black Sea fleet took a Ukrainian navy ship hostage. In 2019, a Russian naval ship tailed Varianitsyn’s coast guard boat, advancing directly on them. Loudspeakers warned that if they continued to pass without permission from Russia, they would be fired upon.
 
Russia also uses its control of the Kerch Strait to harm Ukraine’s economy. “They stall international commercial ships on the way to Mariupol and Berdyansk to pick up steel and grain for export,” the captain tells me. “This is a way to directly influence the economic situation in Ukraine.”
 
Had
I been able to go five miles out to sea on Varianitsyn’s patrol boat, I would
have seen “at least two to four Russian ships that have been actively
monitoring the two Ukrainian ports on a regular basis since 2018.” Ukrainian
naval and coast guard ships don’t even try to enter the Kerch Strait anymore.
But the captain’s patrol boat, nostalgically nicknamed the Arabat after a spit of land in Crimea, never set out to sea on the icy day I visited. The coast guard was wary, I was told, of using the Arabat to break heavy ice unless it was a military necessity. I wondered if coast guard officials were concerned that the boat, built in 1993, was showing its age. Or perhaps Varianitsyn was wary we would meet up with an aggressive Russian patrol boat.

I did join the daily coast guard shore patrol to check whether any unknown small boats had been approaching local beaches, but our binoculars spotted nothing but empty sea.
Ukrainian Coast Guard patrols along beach in Berdyansk on Sea of Azov checking for unauthorized boats.Staff/Trudy Rubin

However, it didn’t take a sighting to grasp the essential message laid out so clearly by Varianitsyn on my visit to the Arabat. The Russian navy believes that Crimea, and indeed all Ukraine, is Russia’s. Moscow doesn’t feel the need to adhere to accords between the two countries on access to the Azov, or to respect international maritime rules.

Whether or not Vladimir Putin means his Black Sea exercises as a prelude to attack, Russia’s naval behavior is yet another example of the Russian leader’s willingness to use force when he believes he can get away with it.

However, Varianitsyn told me one story that carries a different message. When Russian warships held the Ukrainian naval vessel hostage in 2018, they finally released it after intense international pressure.

Only strong, unrelenting Western pushback will make Putin reconsider his blackmail of Ukraine at sea, as he is doing on land. Otherwise, when it comes to the Azov (and increasingly the Black Sea) he will keep trying to make Ukraine’s territory his own. [For anyone grasping reality the bottom line is that rewarding bad behavior – or letting it stand – only promises more bad behavior.  Putin will not stop until he is stopped.  RAM]
 


As always, note that the introductory and parenthetical comments are Mr. McConnell's and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation or the Friends of Ukraine Network (FOUN).
Bob McConnell
Coordinator, External Relations
U.S.-Ukraine Foundation’s Friends of Ukraine Network

Robert A. McConnell is a co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation and Coordinator of External Relations for the Foundation’s Friends of Ukraine Network. He is Principal of R.A. McConnell and Associates. Previously, he has served as head of the Government Advocacy Practice at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, Vice President – Washington for CBS, Inc, and Assistant Attorney General in the Department of Justice during the Reagan Administration. rmcconnell@usukraine.org

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