Written testimony to the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, March 22 nd 2017
By Edward Lucas
Senior Vice-President, Centre for European Policy Analysis and Senior Editor, The Economist
[Chairman Rohrabacher, Ranking Member Meeks, thank you for inviting me here today. It is an honor and a privilege to give testimony to this committee and I would like to thank you for this opportunity and the committee staff for their work. I will give a short oral version of my written testimony and then look forward to taking questions.]
I have been dealing with European security for more than thirty years, as an activist during the Cold War, and also as a journalist, author, analyst and consultant. 1
I argue that:
● Russia is a revisionist power;
● It has the means to pursue its objectives;
● It is winning; and
● Greater dangers lie ahead.
In particular, I believe that the Baltic states are the keystones of the European security order. If they fall victim to Russian pressure, be it military, economic or political, then the rules-based system which the United States has established and defended in Europe for more than six decades is over. The consequences of this would be catastrophic, and not only on the other side of the Atlantic. America’s greatness rests on its alliances: no country in the history of the world has had so many allies, and such deep ties with them. If the United States proves unable or unwilling defend its allies, the collapse in its credibility will be this country’s greatest geopolitical setback since Pearl Harbor.
● Give up any hope of a quick diplomatic fix or other deal with Russia. This is going to be a persistent and dangerous conflict. It predates Putin and will outlast him;
● Continue to strengthen and reassure the frontline states, in particular the Baltic states and Poland . We have done a lot, but much more needs to happen, in particularly in increasing the credibility of our deterrent.
● Expose and punish the Kremlin’s activities in the West . In particular we need to deal firmly with Russian intelligence operations, to counter disinformation, to intensify visa sanctions on the Russian elite, and to block passage of Russian dirty money through our financial system.
● Expose and punish the Kremlin’s activities in the West . In particular we need to deal firmly with Russian intelligence operations, to counter disinformation, to intensify visa sanctions on the Russian elite, and to block passage of Russian dirty money through our financial system.
